Still a range but ...
July 2, 2009, 12:23 pmSo far this market continues to trade in the lower band of the two ranges that set up after the run off the bottom. There are signs that we may see this range finally break down but that will have to wait until next week. There are clear signs of stress but until it breaks it still is.
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Risk Management - It is how you make money
July 2, 2009, 9:34 amTrading books come in roughly 3 flavors:
- One genre are those books that focus either on the fundamentals or the technicals. It makes sense since they are the more glamorous side of trading. If you are able to offer some new or rehashed approach to how you can make a million dollars in the market, it sells.
- Another common genre is that of fear or greed books - the world is going to hell in hand basket and here's how you can profit by it.
- The last major category is the mimic me books - I was a great money manager, made a fortune and here's how I did it. Those books are not as rigorous usually but they are somewhat entertaining and some of them contain good tidbits that, if you are a reasonably seasoned trader, they will resonate.
What almost none of the books do though, is talk about risk and reward; about money and risk management. If the last couple of years have taught you anything in terms of your financial future, it should be that unless you manage risk, your personal finances are going to hell in a hand basket - and pronto!
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Shocker - Unemployment Rises
July 2, 2009, 6:18 amAlthough we are not yet near the misery of the Great Depression, there are a lot of folks having their own personal depression in this country and this market's take has been that things are getting better.
A couple weeks ago, all we could hear was about "not as bad", "green shoots", etc. When and if this market turns south again and starts to scare the living daylights out of folks, the talk will be about "worse than worse" and "burnt shoots".
This morning employment number expanded and the hope of a better than expected number evaporated. Now we are looking at a down opening and some fear creeping in with a 3 day weekend in front of us.
There will be some volume on the opening but after that, it's likely to get very thin it will be hard to do much intraday trading if that's your thing.
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$Compq- B wave or new 5 wave move up?
June 29, 2009, 10:22 am On 6/11 we put in a wave 3 high of 1880 and proceeded to fall below 1806 thus wiping out that potential 5 wave move up and beginning a potential ABC down. The target of this ABC appears to be about 1742 but the low reached so far on 6/23 was 1754. We are now in wave 5 of a short term 5 wave move up which targets 1900. See the following 10 min chart.Read more...
$Compq- Still looking to visit the 1880 area
June 9, 2009, 7:40 pm High today was 1870 and we closed at 1860. My old 1808 target was validated when we slipped below it intraday to 1806 on 6/3. The move up from 1806 starts a new potential 5 wave move which seems to have completed waves 1 and 2 with a target for wave 3 at 1878. See the following chart.Read more...
$Compq- 1808 target overshot, 1881 possible?
June 1, 2009, 7:46 pmMy 1808 target was overshot today- high was 1833 and we closed at 1829. Some overshoot is to be expected especially with the big gap up we had today but if we don't pull back below 1808 in the next few days, it may be that the wave count I wrote about on April 5, 2009 was incorrect. See the following chart.
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