One of the hardest rules to learn in life is that one makes so many assumptions ... many of which turn out to be just plain wrong. I've been advertising an early shutdown today, for example, but it turns out that assuming so was wrong as the hours are normal today. Small assumption but it serves the purpose of reminding us that so many assumptions are made on a day to day basis.

The assumption that this market will fall or rise for this reason or that will likely turn out be both wrong and right depending on the timing. So it is with a market that is as volatile as this one. The push down today is a mirror reflection of the push up yesterday. It comes with wide price spread but there is a difference. Volume is expanding on the way down again.

After the bell last night, the NDX sold off hard on a unfavorable ruling against QCOM and a hit to DELL on an earnings margin miss. That didn't stop indexes from around the world in bidding up prices though.

With the malaise that is out there; with the uncertainty of a long weekend, a brewing storm in the gulf; an unclear political campaign in front of us as we enter the worst month of the year after a good rally week from a price perspective - you have to ask yourself - how is your portfolio positioned.

As we head down the stretch, the feel good financials are leading this market higher while the down trodden big cap techs are sucking air - but today at least, they are no match for the 5% to 20% gains sported over in financial land. Looks as if they will close them at or near the highs as a result.

Over the year I have talked about the four horsemen . The reason for pointing them out was that, at one point, 33% of the NDX was manifest in those four stocks - AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, and MSFT.

Well, now there are five horsemen , as we add QCOM to the list which, combined now they account for some 38% fo the NDX. Watch these five horsemen if you want to know what the NASDAQ is probably going to do.

Oil's inability to hold price has led to some broad selling in the commodity markets dashing my thoughts on a good trade this morning. So it goes. The inability to hold price here despite the hurricane threat over a long weekend is a real tell on how much supply concerns there are .... like next to none maybe.

Oil's demise has been gains for the indexes as they get a false push higher on the back of lower oil. Don't know how much longer they can hold that and we leg into short positions on strength. Just a function of our trading style at the current inflection point.

Although gold clearly was hurt over the past two months, it had a whoosh low and today is breaking out over a swing point. That sets up a run higher.