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Friday, 10 October 2008

TA Today

Closing down the shop PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Friday, 10 October 2008 at 12:32:26 MST

To add to all the uncertainty there are rumor flying around about shutting down the shop, the exchanges among other things. There's concerns about who has counterparty risk in the finished CDO auctions and so forth and so on. Right now, the only thing one can do is to assume is that the world is not coming to an end ... at least not yet and if that is the case, then we should make some very small purchases for tomorrow.

Make no doubt about it, this is extrememly difficult to buy and very ugly. There's the possibility of the into the close melt as well as one next Monday. In all respects, this is probably the hardest buying you'll ever do.

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Monday follows Friday PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Friday, 10 October 2008 at 09:18:55 MST

The problem with a bottom today is Monday. Friday's are not a day of confidence. Market hate uncertainty and weekends are uncertain. Despite the magnitude of the losses, I firmly believe that we are not going to cease to exist and that there will be a point where the market turns.

There's no way to rely on technicals or fundamentals in these extreme circumstances so you either stand aside, but a little and hold it for a better day. Odds are it will trade higher than here, but this is a hold you nose buy and that is not easy.

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A time to use some cash PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Friday, 10 October 2008 at 06:43:55 MST

As you know, we have hoarded our cash for quite a while now at TA Today but looking at the morning melt and the overnight tsuami in world markets, today probably represents the day where we need to put a little cash to work. It's not a time to plunge and there's nothing you can go on now but gut as technicals and fundamentals mean nothing in this environment.

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Relentless! PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Thursday, 09 October 2008 at 14:48:01 MST

I'm running out of ways to describe this market. We are seeing wave after wave of selling day after day. The sell orders just keep coming and although this eventually will setup one heck of a trade higher, so far trying to step in has been fraught with error. If you are not picking your entry points wisely or, worse yet, you entered and let a trade turn into an investments, you are stuck in some deep you know what by now.

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And on the 7th day ... PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Thursday, 09 October 2008 at 12:52:48 MST

And on the 7th day ... we just see the same thing ... more selling. You would think, that in a market that is about as oversold as you can get, somewhere and somehow somebody might want to buty something ... but so far that isn't happening. You have to respect it.

I tried four separate times now to let into a little ETF long exposure and four times I have been able to move the stops up to even and get stopped out. Not very encouraging.

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A bad market gets worse PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Thursday, 09 October 2008 at 08:58:30 MST

As if it wasn't bad enough, the strength is sold and the financial concerns are being hammered again. MS, PRU, and other names are down huge percentages today and the general strain on the financials is tremendous once more and weighing down all attempts to get any kind of a bounce here.

Earlier I mused that no one would want to buy this market at this point. Well, there are plenty who still want to sell it!

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Do you want to buy here? PDF E-mail
Contributed by L.A. Little   
Thursday, 09 October 2008 at 05:30:40 MST

Do you want to buy here? No? Didn't think so? Wouldn't it make sense to buy when no one wants to? Usually does ...

Yesterday, the day before, the day before that and so forth and so on, they have all been disappointing and each rally saw selling as soon as it got going. Part of that problem is that the feds have been tinkering with the market thinking they could make it better yet the laws of unintended consequences simply made it worse.

The shorting ban, for example, takes away the unnatural buyer that usually is there to buy stocks as they fall (in order to book profits). That ban expired last night so now, at least once some shorts are reestablished, we can see that buyer ease back into the fray.

Last Updated ( Thursday, 09 October 2008 at 05:34:38 MST )
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