The Daily Dose of Trading Comments

That was quie a spike into the closing hour or so as the thought that earlier thought we had about the low volume more random movement gave way to some serious short covering it appears ... or at least serious in terms of what we have seen lately. Most likely I will be looking to put short positions back out tomorrow now that we have gotten this jump out of the way. We expected it (tomorrow) and now expect it to be sold back down as we near the major tells for the week and the nervousness increases. If they do continue higher all the way into Thursday, that's a recipe for a more serious spate of selling. My guess is that we will likely see the market start to roll over sometime tomorrow and drift lower again as the overbought nature continues to constrain rallies and make them teflon coated. All in all, we worked that pretty well and continue to trade on our toes here in this low volume affair.

A number of my short positions where stopped out on that surge that I thought could come tomorrow but showed up today. So we booked them. Added a bit elsewhere as well as we keep juggling between short and long short term as the low volume leads to squeezes and air pockets. Just trade them baby!

I've started to trail these index shorts into the close today. Most likely I'll book the gains before the close with trailing stops. After a couple days down to the start the week on weak volume, I would expect some sort of bounce by tomorrow or Thursday in front of the INTC news and employment reports. Not a lot else going on.

Today is providing little opportunity to do much. Four stocks on my screens for possible buys: LOJN, VTIV, CRK, and FAST. The latter two I have made some initial purchases in. The former two I'm watching. Other than that, I've no good ideas on the long side. On the short side, I'd like to see a little strength to add to the index shorts. I'll probably avoid individual shorts at this point unless there's a momentum trade that shows up. For the most part, I'm just reviewing charts and setting alarms until something more interesting occurs.

There's a few storm clouds on the horizon with the INTC update and the employment report this Friday and with a market overbought already, I find it hard to believe you can chase any rally here. I just sold one pickup from yesterday and am looking to add a little to the shorts on further strength if that occurs.

The thoughts from last week and yesterday apply. Slow market and an expected shallow pullback. We moved back to almost equal weight of long and short holdings. We will look to add and to remove shorts on weakness, likely will do little on strength at this point other than a few individual charts. Mostly working charts on an invidual basis here as that provided the reason for movement. Overall market is lackluster and trying to work off the short term overbought readings with minimal damage.

Last week was a low volume rise. This week starts as a low volume decline. There are enough near term negatives to keep me concerned about getting too overweighted in equities at this moment although we did quite a bit of buying today ... enough to take us back to almost equal in longs and short positions. I'm sticking with the thought of trimming on wins both long and short when they seem extended and to add longs and shorts mostly on pullbacks to support/resistance areas. So far that strategy is working well in this market. The thought here is that the pullback we are likely to get this week should be shallow. If so, adding these longs and taking some shorts off a bit later will pay well when all is said and done. Have a good night.

I've spent the majority of the morning scanning for quick hitters and longer term long potential plays. There were a few that we put on as a result but mostly we simply added some names to our list to watch. The market is slow and although breadth has improved, there doesn't seem to be any urgency to buy here nor sell much. Another slow day in a likely slow week. I'll keep looking and working to enhance the portfolio but until we get the employment number out of the way end of week and the majority of money traders back in action next, it's likely to be choppy and thin.

I honestly can't see the market lifting here today given the way it is trading. I've continued to add a few longs this morning on those stocks getting hit pretty hard but that show promise on the technicals. I do not expect a huge decline but have yet to look to lift any short positions. In time.

We have that weak early opening. They, as expected tried to take it higher. I put on a couple small long plays and added a short on strenth. As we get weakness we will look to scale into some longs. Started with EVG and CMP.

Last week was snoringly slow as I napped through several pieces of the puzzle. With volume so light, it's hard to read a lot into anything. So far we have had a low volume bounce with little inclination as to whether there's more to come or not. Though the possibility of a push to 1120 from here exists on the SPX, the more likely scenario is a pullback to 1090-1095 seems to be in the cards. The markets have regained about half their losses on that spill that in early July and are short term overbought now. A pullback that is drifty as has been the advance will offer the opportunity to start some purchases again as that 1080 area looks like solid support with which we can base stops in case we are wrong.

I've talked about the lack of volume and that when we get an increase, it could like be a false positive. The tables are indeed setting up that way now. A pullback here that holds and then a break of the 1110 area could bring out the buyers who feel the are missing the next run. That would likely have a volume increase associated with it. That push could take us to the top of the downtrending channel which is currently around 1138 or so. By the time this occurs it's more likely to be around 1130 which is where the last set of heavy resistance resides on the SPX prior to earlier tops. Of course this is all speculation and futuristic but to peer ahead and develop a thesis allows us to either validate or invalidate as the data becomes available. All this fits nicely with a run in early September which isn't expected and then a late September swoon into October as the nervousness of terror and the elections become clear cut. Time will tell as it always does.

For now, our portfolio is tilted to try and capture a few points on a decline. Since I'm not expecting a big drop there's no need to be too heavily weighted that way and no reason to chase a decline unless you are doing so on a momentum day trade basis. I expect at least one shot to lift them early and if it fails we could get a day of distribution.

That's twice this week I've fallen to sleep with the market being this slow. Set the stops; lay down for a nap; come back late in the day to see what happen. Now that's trading.

Seriously the market was pretty much a snooze and that one push to the heart of resistance at 1109 or so on the SPX was sold back down. That had to be the lightest trading day this year on both exchanges. It really was that slow. Next week we have some July income and expense numbers on Monday, and Tuesday gives us August consumer confidence and PMI and the August ISM index on Wednesday. Friday is the big payrolls number with the employment number at 150K new jobs. Remember the last two have disappointed and riled the markets. I mention eco numbers here because that's the focus now along with the Republican convention next week. I'm expecting a setback here somewhere in the markets next week. I find it very hard to see us climbing past the resistance zones without some sort of pull back before that. Have a good weekend.

As we watch the day melt away in a rather slow trading fashion, I've turned to other business to keep myself from overtrading anything. I am trailing a couple longs with stops as they have shown decent strength this morning but there's not a lot brewing out there and I'm happy to come away with a push right now. I believe time favors a pullback short term and am happy to have an up day that doesn't cut into our gains this month. I would not at all be surprised to see some selling into the end of the day but with this kind of volume, don't expect a lot either way most likely.

This push higher was what we were worried about this morning. It comes on absolutely no volume though in front of a weekend and with the market short term overbought. I don't trust it and am sticking with my leanings here. Have even began to lighten up a bit more on the long side as a result.

Futures are slightly positive this morning as we ready for another weekend. There is an old adage that you should short a dull market and this has to be one of the most dull markets I've seen in a while as volume has all but dried up. There's potentially a few more days of this to come as the vacations wind down and Labor Day approaches. Last night I spent a little extra time looking at the charts as my portfolio has shifted from mostly long to mostly short and I always get uncomfortable at turns. I mentioned that flexibility is the key ingredient that the little guy has in the market. It can also be costly if our timing is not pretty good and we find ourselves too early on a move.

As a result, I lifted the QQQ short this morning as I see the chips didn't want to go down much on the continuing downgrades of the sector and they are up this mornng premarket. Finding a turn is a lot like exploratory surgery, you push and probe as you see if your thesis plays out but you don't get married to the thesis and become unwilling to let it go if it proves wrong. So we lifted one probe and will wait to see if and where we put it back out. If you look at those charts, no one believes we can penetrate 1109 here including me. If we did, we'd get a quick spurt higher and that would probably represent the best of shorting places as it would come on short covering which leaves a vacumn beneath. Just thinking out loud.

Not much to say as a wrap here. Quite, low volume drifty sort of day. I end the day 2:1 short percentage which is quite a change from how we started the day yesterday. That's the real advantage us little guys have over the big players. We can turn a portfolio around in a matter of an hour or so rather than days or even weeks. It can be a big advantage as we can load up and skinny down at will.

With a little more than an hour to go, the market continues to hang tough as it has for a while now. We are seeing some of the more speculative moves starting to get clipped though and usually that's a signal when the mo-mo boys start exiting. Take a look at SAM and BMHC as examples as they are stocks I've been following that fit that category.

All in all, it's a waiting game again. Sometimes we do a lot like yesterday, sometimes very little like today. If we could simply stay in synch with the market and take what it gives, our bottom line would always improve. Easy to say ... hard to do.

It's all about hurry up and wait. We were slightly busy this morning working in some more shorts, trimming slightly on the long side but since then, we've done pretty much nothing ... just like the market. I continue to think there's a little downside brewing here and although there is still room for another pop higher, I don't think there's a lot left there in the short term. Thus we take our positions and wait for now. We short higher or wait is the theme right now.

Over the course of the first hour of trading this morning, I've actually turned net short in the portfolio. I sense that the time has come to buckle up for a decent dip and am trying to take advantage of that move. Not betting big but certainly am bracing for a move lower.

As discussed here at some length, the desire for the past 4 or 5 trading sessions was to get that last thrust into the heart of resistance in order to ring the register. Yesterday was a weak thrust without a large volume rise. I would have been more comfortable with the rise in volume as it would have signalled the end more clearly but that will not likely happen until we see even higher prices. The question is will this market pull back now. I feel rather strongly that it will and have became quite defensive in my stance as a result. Last night was spent looking for short setups and today I will likely deploy some more of those. I am not expecting a long or even large drop but one where we can make a little on the short side and reload the long side in the process.

As the market provided that push towards the big 1109 area resistance for the SPX, we began to scale out of our positions in earnest. In doing so we didn't leave stock in place on all issues but instead about half of them. In fact, we probably scaled back a bit too far as a result as we now stand at 17% long, 6% short. The target was around 22% long and in looking back now, there were two or three positions that we probably should have left some holdings in place as the charts were too good to leave completely.

One of the things I've talked about over the months and have had little success in implementing is the idea of scaling in and out of positions on a regular basis. In doing so, we are much less likely to get hurt on a downdraft and much more likely to get some of the upside if a position takes off. It's a style of trading that most little players never use because they don't feel have large enough portfolios to make scaling work given the way brokers charge for the stocks you purchases and sell. With IB, you can buy a single share for a single penny now so scaling is indeed quite possible and is certainly a more comfortable way of trading.

This move we saw today validated the thought of one more lunge into that heavy resistance area on the SPX. The pause of the past few days and the crumbling of the oil markets today (ACe sent me some mail last night regarding an increase on margins on those contracts which probably had something to do with the fast selling we saw over there) gave enough fuel to get this market past the 1102 area and push closer the real target. My indicators suggest that NYSE is overbought now on a short term basis so I can't see us pushing much higher. That's the reason for this backing down on positions. We likely will want to put them back on next week likely as the overbought condition subsides. If we have traded this right, we will be able to do so at a cheaper price.

The squeeze did in fact occur and I've been scaling out of longs into that move. Added a small starter short in the QQQ as a kicker. Down to about 34% long and trailing a number of longs still as they are moving well. Should be down around 22% long by the close. Shorts will stand around 6% or so. Not sure we want to be very short yet but I do believe the best part of this first leg up is now behind us so I continue to scale down.

The setup for a squeeze into the close is holding up now we just need the follow through. As you know, I'm looking to scale out of longs into strength holding smaller positions in most of the stocks on the boards. May scale into an index short as well but will probably wait until tomorrow to do that if we do it at all. This is the day that we need to squeeze higher and one way or the other I'm planning to get a little lighter into the close.

We did get a reaction move higher again when we didn't break down early but it comes on little volume again and pushes simply back to the resistance area that has held this market back for the past few days at 1100. If we can get through 1102 or so by early afternoon, we could see a little short covering spurt to take us up to better exit points. I've been slowly trimming positions this morning and will continue to do so on strength. I don't care to get very short but am weighing a QQQ or IWM hedge against the position I do keep. Just trying to take what is being given for even if we get a spurt from here, I fail to see how we make it through 1109 or so SPX on this move.

So far it's more of the same as any weakness is bought, strength is sold and all of it on small volume. I trimmed just a bit on a couple issues that are extended here (PSA and MTEX) and added a short back in BCO. Not doing much though as we continue to wait.

Unlike yesterday, the opening enthusiasm looks to be fading despite the good durable goods numbers. A little more cautiousness it seems. Having made a decent move higher, the market is struggling to hold those gains now and appears ready to roll over a bit. That 110 area looks be rather critical short term on the SPYs. The financials have held well to support here while retail took a ding early this week and the chips started to falter yesterday. If the chips continue down today it will get harder to maintain here and we might succumb to some profit taking. I'll continue to trim and to add on individual issues as we wait this out.

Uh ... sorry for the lack of posts today but I fell asleep. With the market providing little more than a yawn again, there was little to get excited about. My activities today were severely limited to some early morning action and then that was it; nothing more.

We are approaching a time where the upside (very short term) is probably limited ... maybe another 10 points or so on the SPX. Same is true of the NASDAQ. We need to consolidate to get another push. We can consolidate up here or lower but we are unlikely to break the heavy resistance overhead without some pause and that's what's happening. I'm still looking to scale out of some stock on strength so we can add back on weakness but it just isn't happening. Maybe tomorrow.

I've not done much today. A little trimming early and then a stop a bit ago. For the most part I'm simply looking to weather the pullback here as I still think we get one more surge here before the week is out. I'm not certain of that though and am attempting to remain somewhat cautious. I do believe that we are nearing a more overbought condition here by end of the week and we have to expect some sort of pullback as a result. Whether that pullback holds support and comes in on weak volume will tell us what to expect going into September. For now, being rather cautious and looking to lighten up a bit if the market obliges. So far, the chips are getting hit pretty hard and even though the easing of oil prices is occuring, that's not offsetting the chip weakness.

I've been quite busy having already put in a couple hours today as I ready for the next move. Putting orders in for longs and shorts and reviewing each open position and placing stops just in case. I need not repeat the story line as I've said it many times already. We are reaching an overbought condition in the market and I'd like another push with a little volume to suggest time to trim profits. If we don't get that in the next couple days I'll likely start a little trimming in select issues regardless.

Not much to hang your hat on today regardless if you are leaning long or short. It was one of those nobody really cares kind of days where the internals were bad pretty much all day and it wasn't until the afternoon that the indexes reflected that. I wasn't very productive today and I was disappointment to see my transport holding all get whacked pretty good. I ended up removing most of them and the others may go the way of a stop loss if that doesn't turn soon. My thoughts on this market and it's near term behavior remained the same after today and given the gains last week, another push here into resistance after a little rest would make sense. In fact a push up to and slightly beyond resistance on some increased volume would be the signal to pull some of these longs off the table for the near term. Until then we will look to protect and stay out of trouble as we wait.

The market continues to hold up pretty well off of last weeks gains. I'm standing pretty much pat here and not doing any selling of existing positions unless there looks to be an obvious break in a technical pattern and the thought that I need to exit or that I can buy back later today at cheaper prices. CLF is an example of that as we sold early and then bought it back a bit cheaper as it has enough volatility to do so. All in all, I'm waiting for either a thrust of activity to take us higher on higher volume or a slow grind that will move us higher. My sense is that the overbought nature of this market will come into play as we near the more serious resistance levels and that we will be shining to take some of these gains off the table as that occurs. If we can't get that push by mid week we will have to rethink the strategy.

Retail is the big drag today on the back of WMT news on same store sales. I've added on both the long and short side this morning as I'm shorting a few names that are having serious bounces on little volume into resistance and adding names that have nice retrace moves to support or are breaking out. Also taking profits if they are threatened but still holding off on wholesales sales as I believe that's a bit too early still. Internals are not the great today.

Last week the market finally decided to make that turn we had anticipated a couple weeks back. After spending almost a week carving out a low there was a bit of a move back to first resistance and then last week week we got the follow through higher. The problem, as most technicians see it, is that we had no volume on the follow through. True and likely to continue to persist until we get some capitulation on the bearish side of the equation. When enough non-believers of the move higher decide to cover their losses or what gains that remain, then we will get a short covering led follow through that will perk the charts on the volume indicator. That will be the false positive the market is looking for but will likely lead to a stall in the advance. I spoke of this last week and am looking for that occurance as a time to signal to turn more cautious. Odd isn't it? The signal that most are looking for may likely end up being the signal to scale back. The market is sometimes perverse in it's ways. For now though, it's continued accumulation on strength and small booking of profits as we continue to work the portfolio through the scaling in and out of positions.

You don't know how good it feels to finally close out a week where the juices are flowing. It's been a long time coming. After a disasterous set of trades on earnings where all three expected earnings plays went bust, to start making back the lost capital is what was needed. Unfortunately it underlines, in bold, the need to protect capital as we would really be ahead if we didn't have to make up what we gave back but I'll not dwell on that subject here again. In trading though, you must learn often from your mistakes but look ahead as well as the market never tires in its quest to disappoint the majority. This weekend will be a busy one for me as my son has soccer tournaments and the market requires my attention to homework as well. We have pushed the equity portion of the portfolio to almost 54% long at this juncture and we need to review each position and consider where adds will be made, stops will be taken, etc. Additionally we have to consider what other moves are needed and the overall indexes need review as well. In essence, no time for the weary as plenty of work lies ahead. Having had a good week though, that task is easier to undertake as the spirits have finally lifted. Hope yours have as well. Have a great weekend and see you here again next week.

The rally just continues here today and I've added on and off all day starting near the opening bell and continuing as the day continues to progress. My largest concern is that we may be moving too far too fast but you know these markets, they always seem to take them farther and faster that you would expect.

Taking a couple minutes here to emphasize what my thoughts are longer term for this market. The very long term trend is down.
The long term trend is down (that's the down trending channel we are stuck in)
The intermediate term trend looks to be up now having changed over the last week
The short term trend (today) I don't try to game as I'm not typically a day trader

I don't expect the long term down trending channel to give way on the push higher here. It could and we will have to evaluate that as we move higher, but I don't expect it to happen. That means in my mind right now we should try to game a trade to the upper end of the channel which is roughly 1950 right now on the NASDAQ and about 1120 on the SPX. It could go further, but that's the target at this time ... at least in this traders mind.

In between here and there we have resistance at 1110 on the SPX that should be tough and 1880 on the NASDAQ. So, it's clearly not clear sailing from here but those are the target areas and resistance zones. On the flip side, we have to hold support at or around the recent range breakout of last week.

As of today, we have good breadth and weak volume. At some point we will want to see volume expand. I would go further to suggest that it needs to happen next week in my mind. My guess it will be expand on short covering when it happens and will be more of a false rather than a true signal as a result, but we will evaluate that when it occurs. For now we are seeing decent strength on a day that I did not expect such.

Isn't it Friday? What's this market doing holding up so well in the face of many reasons that it shouldn't? Oh, the day's not over and that could be options related trading, but a market that goes up when it should go down is trying to talk. I made a series of purchases on opening weakness.

The lower risk setup continues to occur here with futures down this morning. Since it's Friday and Friday seems to be the worry weekend trading, a further drift down today isn't a big surprise. What I'll want to see again is that we don't give back a substantial part of the gains and that buyers step up to the table at some point and do some real buying. That may not occur until Monday but that's fine. What we are seeing in the charts though is an advance in the indexes followed by (so far) a lighter volume pullback. The advance hasn't shown volume yet (tepid and worried buying) but the fact that the pullback doesn't show volume either suggests good things for the bulls. Another day or so like this and you have a situation where you can buy stocks with good exit points from a risk perspective where the upside is much greater. That's the lower risk setup that can occur at a turn. All my work continues to suggest that this advance is real and isn't about to fall through to lower lows (although we have to stop out if it does) but instead is going to at least test the midrange to high end of the downtrending longer term channel. I'll be looking to make a few more purchases on weakness today.

I'm a little disappointed that we couldn' t make anything on our short positions that we added yesterday as that was, after all, the point. The market held up well today in the face of reasons which it shouldn't. Even though it's hard to know anything for sure, the action here sure looks like that of a market that wants to work higher. I brought most of the shorts in and started adding longs back into the mix. If we get the weakness in the morning or all tomorrow, that will offer more entry points. We have a good understanding of where support lies and we should buy weakness into that area. If the market is going to work higher it will do so sooner rather than later so it's an ideal time to make those bets.

I've been nibbling here as we enter the last hour. I actually like what I see in the way the market has pulled back here. It's controlled and not on large volume. A rest is/was needed and although I've not the depth of the pullback I desired in individual issues, it's enough to start some small buys again. Just slowly building this back up. A nice gap down tomorrow would give us a good entry on other issues if that were to occur. A down day in general tomorrow would set up an ugly close and with the weekend looming, we could get a pullback right to the short term support that now rests at 1080 on the SPX. I don't expect us to get that low though ... maybe a bit lower from here but they will likely step up to buy before then.

We are finally seeing some weakness as we sit around and wait. The oil prices keep climbing and after the nice run up, a give back here makes sense. I continue to wait this out to see how far we can come in. I do have a few orders out there to start buying back some of the issues we let go yesterday. The idea is to buy them slowly as they come in and to build our long positions back up.

The market isn't offering much opportunity to trade today as it's quite as it can be. I've done very little overall as I wait for a bit of a pullback. Maybe this afternoon although the internals have improved and it looks rather stubborn about coming in now doesn't it?

So far it's all according to script; a pullback thats not too deep but enough to worry the longs a bit and to entice the shorts as well. If this can continue today and start lower again tomorrow, we may get to buy back some of those longs and position longer for next week. I'd love to see that unfold. Worst case scenario for us wanting to be longer is for it to take off from here. Hard to buy it but hard to ignore as well. Let's cross our fingers for the pullback scenario instead and wait it out today.

I went ahead and closed the SPX short a bit ago for a small loss on the pullback after closing the opening gap. That high may mark the high of the day, but that was an insurance policy for overnight protection and it was worth the $6 it cost. We will wait and see here today if this market can lift. I'm suspecting not given the internals I see early. Don't think we give back more than half of yesterday's gains though even if we pull back. I'll be looking to add a bit if that happens.

We have one of those nascient little rallies taking place here, the ones where no one believes. Those tend to live longer than you expect. We also have a lot of obstacles as you would expect that will make this rally work hard to progress and will result in some hair-raising rides most likely along the way. Oil is probably the biggest concern and I see it rising yet again this morning. Technically we haven't gotten the big volume follow through day yet either and that keeps everyone on the edge looking for a failure. I'm actually not expecting a big follow through day yet. If it comes, it will come at higher prices and actually will not be a follow through but probably a false move based on short covering that gets read wrong but more on that at a later date.

So, in general, I'm looking for choppy action where the market now advances more in fits and starts with lots of backfilling for a few days. We turned more neutral yesterday as a result.

It's been quite a while since we have put 3 days up in a row. The push here into the green is a reminder that the market does have two sides and that you can never get so comfortable to assume that the market won't change directions again. I scaled down today going more towards a slightly long bias into the close expecting a easing of prices sometime soon. If we had seen some follow through buying rather than apparent short covering I would not have positioned this flat but after three days and especially after the performance today didn't show much of an increase in volume, I just don't think the odds on play is to stay strictly long or to get longer. We will see if the read is correct as the rest of the week unfolds. For now, we have booked a few more gains and taken a slightly different stand for a very short term trade expectation.

I've really flattened out my holdings today moving much more towards a neutral stance although still net long. After today's advance on still small volume into a key resistance area I can only do what the odds dictate short term and that is to get a bit more careful. There is some economic news tomorrow but mostly we will trade on the technicals I suspect. I'd like to see some congestion form here for some easing of prices to reload and let the shorts do some work over the next couple days.

We've reached the magical SPX number. I've began booking some gains and partials. Putting out a bit more short also.

Since my last post the market has taken another jolt forward and I've began averaging into a few individual short positions on stocks that look to be bouncing primarily on low volume after being drubbed. So far it's a trickle on the sell side as I believe there's more to go on the upside as you know, but if we really do get a choppy market which I also expect, then having a few shorts on the weaker plays out there will help to cushion the blow on the longs we intend/want to hold a bit longer. The other options are to simply absorb a push back against us knowing we are right (that always is a bit dangerous no matter how certain you are) or to sell down the longs to reduce risk and book gains. Although I plan a bit of the latter as well, putting on some selective shorts will hopefully allow us to keep our longs longer.

As I look beyond today and focus on the next serious resistance levels, the SPX 1095 area calls out. There are a number of factors that look to keep us below those levels this week so we may be getting close to a point where we get a little let up and the shorts will likely come out in droves thinking we are done. We need to think about taking some profits into this area and lightening up a bit.

On the NASDAQ, it's not so clear cut as that little thing has really been banged up. Just to get back to the 30 day MA is another 35 points from here. I'm keying off the SPX as a result.

As for today, we are holding well and I'm looking for some more strenth into the close. That may be where we book a bit of our gains.

The early selling wasn't enough to take us down and once the highs of yesterday broke, we got a rush of buying probably on short covering to take us higher. This stair stepping up on short covering could be the ticket to carry us higher because enough folks simply don't believe we can climb from these levels. If that's true, we will likely see very choppy trading for a while longer here.

With this spurt today, it's looking more and more like the recent lows were probably the lows for that latest leg down intermediate term. Now it's even more likely that we stairstep higher. I made a few more purchases once the market turned in TV and TZA. Just keep incrementally adding as my confidence in this turn grows.

With the semi's holding right out of the gate, I took that QQQ short off for small profits early and am sitting here admiring the strength I'm seeing despite these oil prices. It's truly starting to seem as if enough bad stuff has been priced in to allow stocks to lift for a bit. I've turned my attention to where we might add again for now but it will continue to be in small increments.

We wake up to higher oil prices, Google downdraft in the Internet sector and lower futures as a result. Today and tomorrow are the test days for this budding turn as we've bounced enough to encourage the trend followers to reapply their bets on the downside and for those weaker holders to give into the pain of another possible turn down. I still hold that the likelihood of a move higher here is greater than that of down but as we put on the QQQ hedge last night, I'm not oblivious to the other possibilities. We will see how the market works here and take our cue from it as to how much and how often we trade today. Personally, I'd rather do no more than to lift the QQQ at some point and add a bit elsewhere. Don't know that this will be the case though. Watch the semi's for the cue on the QQQs and see if the financials can continue to work higher.

I'm done here today. The nagging question will be volume once more but there are some positives. Despite the rise in oil again, the market held green. Economic news was positive. Most of all we are starting to see the signs of a possible intermediate term bottom being put into place. I'm suspicious that the rise will be choppy and hedged a little going into the after hours session this evening. Just a precaution. Trying to stay flexible here in a market that now has two back-to-back rises after being routed for weeks. At some point we will get some downward pressure again and how the market handles it will give us a clue as to whether we really have the bottom ticks in place on that latest intermediate term leg down.

With a bit less than an hour to go I've started a QQQ short for a short term spread on these longs. We are in the second day of a move off the bottom and are still showing no volume increase. We have AMAT up to bat tonight on earnings and with the rise on the acquisition announcement this morning, I'm not so sure they are going up further tomorrow. Just putting a little on that side of the ledger at this juncture.

I continue to find some interesting setups like SERO, NDE, MNT, WCC and am buying into these setups. I am trying to move more and more to the mindset of trimming when we have profits and buying good charts on any weakness and buying good charts on momentum moves. Lots of little trades as a result.

Today is one of those days where you simply try to better your positions a bit and stay out of trouble. The only dump today was VTS which, like many an oil related stocks is getting hit. The desire is to not suffer serious drawdowns anywhere and to make small partial sells in places where we can looking to better our positions by small amounts. Everything still looks to be setting up here for an attempted push higher but we have to be patient and look to buy weakness rather than to add into strength. Adding on this morning's strength, for example, was not a good idea because they in fact did fade that strength albeit it took a half hour to get it going.

I've been trimming positions this morning, not because I don't like what I see, just because it's day two of a budding advance after a slaughter with a tech heavy weight reporting tonight (AMAT). I'm just being very careful here and taking what I can get when I can get it. We can easily add, but it's not easy to sell when the bids disappear. Looking to get longer later.

No fade on that opening as we are seeing shorts scramble to cover instead. In fact, it looks as if this gap has a good chance of holding here with the volume increase I see early along with the breadth. I've made one small add this morning in TRA which broke out yesterday. Expect a push back towards or even into the gap shortly and then we will see what we really have going today.

I've read five articles this morning and every one of them made mention of the fact that yesterday's bounce was on low volume and can't be trusted. Well, yes and no. The vast major

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