The Daily Dose of Trading Comments

The markets are ending lower on lighter volume again. The remainder of the week brings a few more economic reports, the INTC mid-quarter update after the bell on Thursday and then the employment report on Friday before the bell. The INTC report could be beneficial as not much is expected while the Friday report has to come in line or we sell down. So, a lot remains to be seen at the end of the week. We, at TA Today, still are concerned about the possibility of a drop and we continue to hedge against that to some degree. We also continue to book gains here and there putting the money in the bank so to speak. Those lingering concerns keep us more cautious that we would prefer to be but caution still seems to be the best method and we will continue to work small trades in a number of stocks in between as we let time work it's magic.

With bargain buying continuing, we've ended up adding to our overall long positions as we rotate into some new names showing good risk/reward setups. It's hard to look the other way and so far it appears that the market's answer to overbought is to move sideways. That's ok and certainly preferable if you want to be long. The problem it sets up is that if and when it begins to move up again, it's likely to spike as the I missed the train folks rush to get on board. So, we slowly buy here and there and recycle our longs as we look to stay fresh while the market churns.

Despite many reasons for this market to come back in ... it just doesn't want to. There still feels as if there is too much money waiting to purchase. Sure that can change and that is what you need to worry about, but in between, there are purchases that can be made, sells as well. We continue to book gains and to accumulate expecting future gains. An example today is buying PSA. A good chart with a heavy retrace of late. It's back down to support and you can use the recent lows as a stop out point if wrong. So, at a purchase of $53.07, risk is back to roughly $52.50 or so and reward a good $2 to $3 higher. That's good risk reward. That's what we preach here at TA Today. It may not work, but the odds are in your favor.

Although painful, we are starting to make some additional purchases in the precious metals area, mainly in silver stocks. They could fall further, but we are averaging into them believing that they will give us a jog higher here at some point and the percentage losses over the past week or so is becoming excessive.

The major indexes continue to hold in well here and although weakness persists underneath, they have yet to show it in the headline numbers. Caution is still the word ...

The internals and underlying indexes remain weak today and continue to warn of caution in chasing this market. It's ok to work particular setups either to the long or short side (long side mainly) but thashing is likely so don't put too much capital to work and then have to pull out as a result of the pressure and fear. Small plays can work in a thrashing market but large ones will get you in trouble.

This market will likely either digest the gains and work off the overbought condition by moving sideways for a while, or it will retrace. Until time passes or a retrace occurs, you need to have caution in mind.

I see the early post didn't actually get posted. The synopsis was that we are being cautious. We are adding but small still. We'd rather put money to work at lower prices rather than chase, but we are willing to buy particular stocks and patterns in the interim.

Early look is negative on the underlying indexes but the majors are green. Will be shorting some SPY as we add.

What a painful day ... up, down, up again, down again. These thrash days can ruin your portfolio if you are reacting to moves. We end the day a bit lighter than we arrived and pretty much made nothing for our efforts. A couple names we dropped made some decent moves after the fact and we made a little hay on some we worked as well. So it goes. The bigger question is what is this market doing right here ... right now. Our opinion is that it's one of two things, both of which call for continued caution. It's either going to work off some of the overbought condition by going sideways (in which case being mostly in cash won't really matter near term) or it's going to get a decent sized pullback that works off the overbought condition (in which case being mostly in cash is much more preferable than the alternative). There's a slight chance it just continues the run, but that's an outside shot for now. If you believe in capital preservation, it's better to stay light on the longs for now and rotate amongst the strong as they provide entries and exits.

Momentum is not easily dismissed as the short downside today was abbreviated by the missed the train crowd. It takes time. We continue to view the current conditions as problematic and a pullback possible at any time. As a result, we are staying mostly in cash for the time being working momentum breakout trades mostly.

The mo-mo guys just won't give it up as you can see the IWM as the only major index in the green right now. Some stocks are up 10% on nothing more than momentum moves it appears. It' great if you are part of the move but they can definitely turn them and there's enough red on the boards to keep us mostly sidelined today. We would rather wait for a better setup with a bit less risk. Just treading water today, flipping through charts and setting alarms.

We had put out some targets a little over a week ago of

DJIA - 10260 to 10330
SPX - 1142 to 1158
NASDAQ - 1195 to 2030

Those are still good numbers numbers to work with but just like last time, we could easily turn higher before then. Other than a few precious metals purchases, I'm staying inactive after liquidating most longs and am waiting for the dust to settle for now.

That smell we detected was indeed the rot of too many momentum chasers trying to run this market once more. Rather than succeeding they fell of their own weight which we were aware could happen. We cleaned house rather quickly as a result and were able to escape unscathed. Now we have to wait for the right set of circumstances to purchase again. Our quick selling has left us with a mixed bias showing evenly short as much as long but mostly cash. Sometimes it pays to chase and sometimes it doesn't. Today was an example of what happens when you are bag holder on the chase. Expect some pressure on any attempted bounce today as the early buyers look to exit.

We started this morning with a flurry of buys and partial short covering. Then it appeared as if it was an emotional blowoff the way things began to unfold so we turned, added a bit more short hedges and let go of a lot of partials. We had some great gains last week and being a bit cautious as a result. The worst thing you can do after a lot of gains is to feel that you are invincible as they will surely knock you for a loop. We are still leaning long, but the feel this morning is one of apprehension now. We have seen this market not give up easily and although it's doubtful today will be the beginning of a rollover, a pullback sometime this week seems quite likely.

I don't like the feel this morning and am paring back positions.

I'm quite torn as I awake to see these futures screaming ahead. On the one hand I see a lot of warning flags at these prices. A number of factors continue to be worrisome from sentiment to overbought oscillators on both the short and longer term now. We certainly can rise more near term but it's getting worrisome.

Then I look at many a sector including those we have been working for the past couple months like defense, energy, oils, and almost all the mining and metals and you can't help but be bullish. Combine that with the strong technical indicators on the general indexes and it's hard to pull in your horns completely.

So you have to keep playing but stay aware here. The turn will come at some point; the bulls will exhaust themselves. Until then, work your long trades but keep your trigger finger ready to squeeze as there's nothing worse than to be the one left holding the bag.

Ok, so it is another post but I've just started shorting the TLT and the QQQs. The TLTs have put in a lower high and now a gap down. Just a starter position there. The QQQs are a hedge on the remaining longs. Not a big one yet, but the pattern today is a reversal on the daily charts. We'll see how that plays out come next week.

With but a half hour to go in the trading day, it appears the markets will levitate until the finish line. The realy question is how will they react next week. End of month, a barrage of data points on the economy, a market that is staring at new highs but still extended to some degree, etc.

We have taken the more conservative approach paring back our longs to about 33% or so and keeping the rest as cash. Our concerns are many but in general we typically want to buy weakness and sell into strength (unless are playing the momentum thing). And so it goes ...

I'm signing off early here and saying good day to all of you. Remember, finding good picks is only part of the story; how you manage them once you have them in your portfolio is the rest of the battle. There will always be situations where you look back and you say "Darn, if I had only ...". That natural because you can't do the right thing everytime. If you scale in and out though you'll likely be more happy with your overall performance as that's really the logical conclusion of the delimna we all face.

Have a great weekend and we'll see you on Monday.

We are using today's strength to rotate our exposure around booking some gains and adding a few names. Net result will be a smaller exposure overall most likely. Not sure it's the right time to reduce exposure as the markets are attempting another break higher, but this time of the year is most difficult to measure what anything really means as there's no volume comparison and most everyone is jubliant. Just being a bit cautious for now and although maintaing exposure to further upside, reducing some holdings in case this break higher attempt fails and we get fallout as a result.

The small cap squeeze continues to be where it is at as those stocks just get moved around and around. We've added a little and subtracted a little. As much as I want to embrace the idea that the chips stocks are the ones that have to lead us higher right now, they certainly aren't acting as if they will. I've took a couple positions off in that area as a result. Otherwise it's mostly small adds and subtracts as we lock profits and shift exposure. All money management right now.

The early tone is positive and we have made a few purchases as a result. Names like INFY, AFFX, FRNT, AMGN, POOL, and adding to XXIA. All are reasonably small but we want to maintain exposure and opportunity as long as the mo-mo continues.

There's a virtual cornucopia of economic data to hit next week starting Tuesday and hitting each day through Friday's employment numbers. With the oscillators having room but starting to move back towards their highs indicating an overbought market again, we have room to move higher but we must be on guard for the next round of profit taking. Technically, we need to see the SPX and NASDAQ trade at higher highs after this little pullback. On the SPX that would be 1189 and on the NASDAQ that's around 2113. Both are within reach and both should occur by Tuesday next week if we are indeed going to gallop a bit more before another rest. Without higher highs the tendency to congest or even pullback a bit further becomes more likely. Just pointing out the obvious.

It's Friday ... Black Friday if you listen to the retailers (where they move into the black for year and out of the red). For us, it's another short day accentuated by positive vibes. The markets have been eeking higher on the major index measures and screaming higher on the more volatile small caps. This day typically is a good one having gone up far more than down on average. The only problem is that it's a short trading day and we have been up a lot already. Our measures of overboughtness are starting to get up there again and that always tends to make us less aggressive in our holds. Pigs are ok but hogs are usually slaughtered. We'll look to see if there's anything we can do early and we may put on some starter positions in a few stocks that have the potential to break higher, but nothing major in terms of longer term purchases today most likely.

We are still intrigued by the setup on the SOX/SMH as they have broken their downtrend line and now have retraced back to it and are levitating. Sure looks like they want to be the next leg up leaders. May start a position in the index itself to see if it can manifest itself.

Another good day for the markets as the mo-mo crowd just can't get enough. They were active all day and some of the moves they put on were a bit outrageous but if they can get away with it, they will. It's pretty simple they say, find a small cap stock with thin float and gun it for 5, or 10, or even 20% on the day. Hard to believe.

I'm closing shop and preparing for Thanksgiving. See you on Friday for the holiday shortened trading where they mo-mo crowd will, no doubt, be up to their old tricks.

With a little less than an hour to trade, volume seems to be thinning as traders take an early exit. Once again, the action has been fast and furious with a nice upside bias. Strong trends certainly make trading easier and more enjoyable. We will end the day with roughly 50% of the portfolio long ... down from the high of about 70% earlier today but still enough exposure to work with come Friday. The caution is a result of where we are in this cycle. We are trading near the top of the short term range and, having not made higher highs yet, we still could be hit with a quick spike down again and thus we guard against that to some degree. Booking partials let's you rest easier and make sure that you are adding to the capital base rather than setting it up for a takeaway. Capital is your lifeblood in trading. Always thing risk first ... then reward.

I've used the slow part of the day to walk through every position of the portfolio and to decide do we trim, leave it alone, or take it out. The reasoning is that we have had a nice run this week, we have but half a day of thin volume remaining on Friday (usually positive though) and if we want to book gains, it's best to do so into strength.

Note, I'm not bearish here ... still quite bullish short term ... but maybe a little more cautious. I remember some years back after having made a decent amount of change for myself coming to the realization that the object no longer was simply making money, but instead keeping it. Trading is no different and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

In retrospect, it appears we may have been a bit premature on our exit from most oils, but if you look at it from the other side of the equation, you have a long holiday in front of those commodity traders and they are likely to cover their shorts into the long weekend which creates buying pressure. If that's true, then Monday could likely see a nasty reversal and spot oil falling again. So, it's a bit premature to turn and jump back in. We'll put that one on the back burner for now and look to re-enter at better prices.

One of the hardest things to do is to sell. You buy something, it goes up and then you have to sell it. Most of us enjoy buying but not selling and we are loathe if we sell it and it continues higher. I understand, I feel the same way when that happens. That's a feeling you have to learn to suppress though because, realistically, we can't hit the top tick on our sells except in rare cases. We are 99% sure that when we sell something, it's likely to trade higher unless we are dumping something that's falling like a rock in which case we feel just as badly because we held the stupid thing much longer than we should have. Don't let your mind play tricks on you. You have to book gains periodically and in fact, one could argue that a high velocity of turnover in your funds can actually be a lot better than a lower turnover ... if you have a good succes rate in your picks.

The market got a nice spike off the drop in oil but now it's rising again and the market has flattened again. Underneath the sheets though, there's a lot still happening and will likely be the case into the close. Although we have lightened up on the oils, we have put that money back to work elsewhere and continue to maintain a large long exposure. Just trading ...

A couple quick notes as we are swamped with activity. Sold our oils down to a minimal holding. Will look to build them back up over the coming days.

Put the gold short back out earlier with NEM as the metals have stalled despite the dollar weakness. Tells us that we are likely to see lower prices still.

Working the aggressive stocks like XXIA, SNDA. Lots of volatility in the small stocks. Get a load of HDTV if you question what we mean.

This market is all over the place and I'm having a hard time keeping up. Have sold down the oils even more and have made a few trades on volatility ... sometimes good ... sometimes bad. This intraday volatility is great if you are working these high beta stocks. Takes a while to get used to.

For now, the markets got a knee jerk lower on all the eco stuff. We are still seeing a lot of hot speculation underneath though and as long as that last, this momentum stuff continues.

We've made some aggressive purchases early mostly adding to existing positions and covered the majority of that one gold short for now. Look to put it back out again later. Looking for a rising tide today in small caps.

The future's so bright ... I've got to wear shades ...

Brimming with confidence, the traders are bidding up the futures this morning, and why not, GOOGs going ot 215 according to one investment house's advice. The more things change, the more they stay the same don't they?

It's likely to be another busy day today as the retail traders fire up their computer engines and bid up their favorite small cap stocks. No longer is football and turkey the mainstay of Thanksgiving, but playing chicken while bidding up low priced stocks to nose bleed levels before and after Thanksgiving is the ritual de jour anymore. We'll see if we can locate and ride one or two of those moves as well.

The day is busy also from the perspective on eco numbers as we have a couple that could move us. The oil inventory numbers are on deck an hour into trading and they definitely can move this market either direction. Remember we lightened up yesterday looking to add or just ride what's left in our inventory based on the report. Protecting and taking profits is just as important to trading as finding picks.

We also will see durable good orders in another half hour and some sentiment numbers shortly after the opening. Most likely we will see some unbridled optimism again today as this market levitates higher, has done a little easy of the overbought condition and, like last week, is probably ready to test the high end of the range again. For now we'll ride that optimism and watch for tell tale signs of a turn just in case. At some point we have to be a bit more guarded in our approach but momentum and history are hard to argue against right now.

If you just glance at the headline numbers today you would probably think that little took place. If you were positioned in some reasonably decent stocks and stock sectors you would have seen some good gains again today ... as our portfolio was up again almost as much as yesterday. It's been a long time since we have seen back-to-back gains in that portfolio and those gains come on a flat market. The reason this can happen is that we typically are working the higher beta, small cap stocks and they move a lot more than the big cap stocks that are reflecting more so in the indexes. As I suggested yesterday, if you want to know what kind of speculation and momentum is taking place, look to the IWM as a good proxy. Today it outgained the majors again and is refelction of the fact that a lot can happen under the covers when above, calmness is the story.

Looking at the SPX and the NASDAQ charts, we see continued levitation up near the recent highs as we work off the overbought condition. The damage is minimal and with but two days to trade this week and those being seasonally strong ones, it's hard to get too bearish here. We are maintaining a rather aggressive long stance for now and attempting to garner the profits while they are there. We did cut back on our oils after two days of substantial gains. If the inventories cause a ripple back down, then we will look to start adding some back again. To and fro as we go.

The precious metals came in hard today which is what we have been looking for. Still too early to start buying much there but put it on your radar screen. The only reason we can see it selling down here is that magic round number of $450 for the commodity. Round numbers many times repel prices on the first attempt to rise above them. It would be nice if gold could trade back down to $430 or $425 but, just like the stock market, it's unlikely that it will trade back down that deeply in the near term. Get some stocks in that sector on your list and start some minor purchases as they come in. Note that the ETF proxy for gold GLD is also available now if you want to stay away from the stock baggage while trading an issue on the stock market that's really a commodity.

Finally, here's hoping that today was a good day for you as well. See you again tomorrow as we ready the birds for stuffing and prepare for a final day of trading in front of Turkey Day. Have a good evening and our continued thanks for your continued support. Good night!

Well, with oil prices stablizing and then dropping, the market has caught a bid again. We've been busy for the past hour making additional purchases here and there. As long as it's working, we need to exploit it. Right now that is the case.

Oils have maintained reasonably well but we've been trimming slightly there. Inventory report out tomorrow is a good excuse to do some trimming in case as we have some large profits to protect.

It's an interesting market today as the price of oil is blamed for market weakness. Maybe so, maybe not. Rather than trying to decide exactly what's driving what, how about concerning ourselves more with what's working and what's not. This market has had a great deal of momentum driving it higher. That momentum can change but it takes a while to turn when you have rising prices. Unlike falling prices that can turn on a dime and give you a V bottom, topping patterns typically play out for a while. I suspose that is more a function of the fact that in general there are more folks who buy than sell but whatever the reason, it seems to bear out in the charts.

Given this tidbit, you can use that knowledge to be a bit more risky, if you will, on the upside move whereas on the downside move you can't. This price drop this morning has hit some stocks in our portfolio, but we have only culled one stock that violated areas that we deemed reasonably important. Everything else is still within bounds so we let them ride and in some case, add to them.

We have some huge moves taking place in the oils. We've started sticking a few asks out there for some partials but for the most part, are willing to stick with them a while longer.

The precious metals have really been struggling with the 450 area in gold. Even with the dollar weak again, they are having a hard time up here. We have that NEM short still out there and are now starting to trail it with a stop just in case of a reversal. We are also starting to stick a bid out there for some WTZ which has a large beta and sometimes gives some nice entry points. Just stick a low bid out and see if it hits is the kind of thought process that goes into that one.

Well, the early feel got bushwacked by rising oil prices. That sector is screaming again. Other than that, the internet and resource stocks are about it while the rest of the market looks red. We are continue to add today looking to use weakness to add as well as breakout momentum buys. Some work, some don't but that's always the case. You just manage the risk.

Volume running about the same as yesterday and if oil steadies rather than screaming higher, look for a bid to be given to market still. If it doesn't, then maybe those targets for the pullback published last Friday evening will come into play.

Just like yesterday, the early feel is that of a market that wants to creep higher again. Breadth is mixed and volume about the same as yesterday. The NASDAQ has a big up/down volume advantage despite being in the red. The energy, oils, retail, and internet stocks are leading the strength so far. We've been nibbling again, mostly in the oils again.

Yesterday's lows came and went quicker than a thief in the night. If you were waiting and undecided, your opportunity as it were to put on some long exposure was taken away ... at least it looks that way so far. Now the market has the burden of working it's way higher when many expect that it's not done with the pullback. That may be so, but there are no guarantees that it is or it isn't and putting some exposure on was a good thing. If it tips it's hand either way today we can adjust further putting additional exposure on for a breakout or looking to add again on weakness. Our hunch is that it's not likely to give us those prices again this week given the calendar.

Futures are flat, oil looking a tad higher and the real interest today will be the SMH. After breaking downtrend lines last week then retracing back to that area, We'll be watching the chips to see if they can lead the market higher. We know that they shouldn't given their fundamentals, but when did fundamentals matter. Watch INTC especially on the back of another downgrade. Book-to-bill ratio improved but is still negative. Should be interesting.

Well it took most of the month but we finally got the setup we were looking for starting last week. We were able to work some short exposure finally, add modestly on weakness Friday and them again today only to see the market rear up and take off. The problem with the advance today is that volume comes in lighter. Not what we want to see with respect to a pattern and although we don't like to dismiss things because of this or that, but it is Thanksgiving week where volume always gets a bit lighter.

There was some wild action under the covers so to speak. The moves in some of the smaller cap stocks were big and we were able to piggy back a couple. NFLD, TOPT, ASIA are some examples of big movers. Below that set of high flyers were some good gainers as well and there we had a better distribution. Other than some internets, the primary indexes pretty much finished in the green. A good solid broad based advance. The thing to watch now is whether this momentum can continue and the shorts can get squeezed farther. The absense of selling this morning was the give away that we could get something going coupled with the good action in small caps. That's always a good signal in a market like this one where we have seen a strong momentum run and a small pullback. Now we'll have to watch and see if develops farther or not.

I particularly like the action in the energy and oils. We have worked into a number of long positions there and although we continue to add and trim depending on the individual stocks, that sector looks really good for some continued upside action.

Have a good evening and get some rest because this holiday shortened week looks to be a busy one. See you tomorrow.

We aren't seeing a huge move higher in the major indexes but there is a speculative feeding frenzing occuring under the covers. The Russell 2000 is usually a pretty good indicator of the more speculative side of the market as is the IWM. It has shown strong all day and continues push higher. Breadth has turned positive as has the new highs and lows.

We've been busy mostly adding early, taking some partial profits over the last half hour but maintaing a healthy level of bullish positions. In other words we are not trimming on the belief that a big fall is yet to come. Until new highs are set you can always question the move back up but if you wait for new highs, it will be too late again if you haven't already started with some adds. This morning was a good opportunity to do just that.

It's easy to sit back, consider what may happen, and to wait. It's a little harder to stick your paw out there, take down some stock just in case what you think may happen doesn't happen because your overall positional reference is bullish.

We put some targets out Friday evening with the idea that as we move towards those targets we need to get longer. We bought the weakness this morning as the target prices were becoming nearer. We didn't load up because we didn't get close enough to those targets. Instead we bought steadily in names that were showing good charts but were getting sold early. As the day has progressed, the market held strongly, volume was low, and the more speculative stocks started to see a lot of action. That caused us to continue to buy as the market sat there.

Now we have a market at the highs of the days but we can't really get carried away here and now buy as if the market is running away from us. Just like this morning's early weakness turned to strength, this late mornings strength could turn back to weakness by afternoon. Not expecting it, but then again, this is a market and expectations are not always borne out. Thus, we start to slow down a bit and start to consider what we nip if the market does begin to turn ... where we begin to book partial gains if that time comes.

The desire is to keep everything of course, but realistically we were able to make purchases in order to sell them at higher prices. We have higher prices and we have to consider the sells now if things begin to fall back. We will be patient and give them some room. Hopefully, the pullback is done and this push forward now can pick up some momentum. In the meantime we will prepare for the worst and continue to look for any other opportunities that may present themselves.

The market is hanging tough this morning and there seems to be a lack of selling more than anything. No big buyers hitting the asks ... at least not yet. Some concern about how far the retrace carries and everyone wanting to buy it cheaper which can quickly turn to Oh heck I've missed the train thoughts again. Rather than getting yourself into such a position, an alternative strategy is to pick at the asks on weakness in stocks that you like. If they come in further, then you pick some more. If they start heading up and the break some key resistance areas, then you add again. It's not a foolproof method, but if you believe the general trend of the market is up, then making purchases on weakness with the idea of further purchases to come makes sense. Again, you just have to have a strategy for what you are doing.

We continue to make purchases this morning along the lines described above. One of the things we continue to do more and more of is to take starter positions ... little buys that put a stock on our radar screen. The tendency is to forget about a stock because of information overload. If the stock is in your portfolio ... even if it's tiny ... it gets the attention it needs and isn't forgotten. That way you can manage it actively either picking up some more on weakness or strength depending on the chart. In a trending market, this idea works well.

We've been extremely busy this morning increasing our holdings. Added a few new names and added to existing ones. Still not buying heavily but we are up to 50% now on longs. This is Thanksgiving week, the early half hour volume (down opening) was light which caused us to continue making purchases on weakness.

We are making small purchases here this morning into weakness and will continue doing so today. Nibble here, nibble there.

Last Friday, in closing, we threw out some rather specific and short term prognostications ... man is that ever a setup to be busted. If you want to prognosticate you have to make the time scale variable or at least long term and you have to not remind folks of the prognostication when wrong like we are doing now. In fact, we should go back to earlier comments made during the week where we suggested that a pullback Friday and Monday would be expected and where we could get long as a result. All depends on your timeframe doesn't it. Keep that in mind when you read these pundits.

Now to the serious work at hand ... setting up for some money. The SPX is looking to open lower as is the NASDAQ this morning while oil and gold are working higher. I laid out some target retracement numbers late Friday as I looked over the charts. They are just targets. If you want/expect to get long on this retracement, you have to buy as we approach these support targets. We prefer to buy on a scale so that we get longer at cheaper prices rather than waiting and chasing as prices move higher. Our scale is wide though and how you scale or even if you scale is your decision. Just have a strategy of how to get long here. We find it extremely difficult to believe that this pullback is going to turn into a significant decline. Possible but remote.

One last note this evening as I reflect on the week and the charts. Retracement targets are what I'm thinking of. Here's the numbers I'm jotting down:

DJIA - 10260 to 10330
SPX - 1142 to 1158
NASDAQ - 1195 to 2030

I do not expect this retracement to last long or be deep. Volume should lighten up as well.

So we end near the lows and we have the weekend to ponder the run up. I'd be willing to bet, 2 to 1 that we will see an up opening on Monday. Can't miss the rally folks will likely be in line to make some early morning purchases.

Expect a rally Monday that probably reverses within the first hour and a half.

Expect the G7 meeting to say something to support the dollar.

Expect the metals to drop and the dollar to rally.

Expect the Thanksgiving week madness.

Expect a Christmas rally to follow.

Expect a lot of things. Get some, don't get some others. For us here at TA Today, we expect the first 4. The last one, well that's a bit more of a stretch and we'll have to see about it. Now there's some prognostication!

Have a great weekend. Get a load of ACe. He's back to true form and giving us his thoughts. I have to remind you that I think he is right on about what's coming. The only difference is that of timing.

It's always fascinating to me how the pundits will talk about the futures as if it's the past whether it be on TV, in print, or over the air. As I've been continuing to hold oils and trade them back and forth for the past month or so, I've been hearing about how the commodity was going back to the $30's. Fat chance on that one by the looks of things today. Heck, I've got to go out and fill up the car as I see gas up over 7 cents a gallon today alone. The crude is cruising itself, up over $2 and change.

We all like to prognosticate and that's ok, but be honest, you don't really know! It's a game of odds and you simply place your bets based on your hunch, your technicals, the fundies, your friend, whatever it is, it's a bet in the end. Doesn't matter whether it works or not, it was a gamble to some extent and hopefully you are smart enough to place the bet when you had a good risk/reward and you were just as smart to know where you would be wrong if that's the case, because it will be the case over some number of those bets. That's the facts. I don't care how good you are as you will never be always right!

The market continues to struggle and with nary but an hour to go it looks like we will close near or at the lows today. No late day buying on this Street today. I'll be looking to make a few more purchases into the bell. Oh ... and I did short some of that gold via NEM. Just not acting right up here.

We have tightened down the stop on the QQQ short, and have made some small nibbles on stocks we kicked out this morning. Will this be more than a one day thing? Anyones guess though we don't expect it to be a long pullback. Would rather it be more of the type that lasts for 3 or 4 days but don't expect it. With that said, we add a little exposure just in case this attempted intraday bottom holds and those buy the dips folks decide to come in this afternoon. If wrong, then we'll look to add a bit more later.

ACe Talking: Greenspan speaks, everyone listens; ACe speaks, deaf ears all round;

I see that the Greeny comments have caused a ripple today. He states the obvious, and repeats my speech of last week about the U.S. deficits, the weak dollar, and foreigners running away from dollar assets, causing rates to rise. A 1987 scenario if ever I saw one. Of course, this is a mere correction for a day or two before we see the 1250 level on the S+P. It is not the biggest bull trap for many years. That really can't happen, because VIX is through the floor, every trader out there is long because the market always goes up in turkey week, bulls outnumber bears by an absurd margin in the latest surveys, RSI charts are at 1999/2000 levels, and some of my DMI readings are there too. No, this market has only one way to go, and that is upwards, so get as many longs as you can and sit on them. Me? I am selling property and pushing the funds into financing the biggest short positions in my brief history as a trader/investor. If people like you can just keep this market going higher for another 3-6 months, that would be ideal for me. Many thanks.

I also note that Goldman Sachs have given us a reality check on techs today. In a note to clients, they said about semiconductor stocks: "We expect the stocks to make new cycle lows driven by continued disappointing fundamentals over the next several quarters". I don't know why it has taken them this long to work that out. I could have said that weeks ago, although with smaller words as I am not a clever broker any more.

As I always suspected, some people would wait till after the election to tell the truth. In 2005 and 2006, there is no need to massage the market higher, so get ready for the big short trade. The long side won't be back until 2007/8. And remember that 1966-82 market. The Dow went back to the highs on 4 occasions in those 16 years (ie, 1,000), and also saw the lows on 5 occasions (around 700-750). So don't be too shocked if we see 11k Dow before we head lower, and be prepared for 11k on a few more occasions before I hit the big 5-0.
ACe

It has been our contention for a while now that at some point, the market would indeed pullback and it would likely be a sharp and fast correction. The assumption is that it would provide entry points that would allow one to get a foothold and offer the opportunity to escape if indeed the resumption of the trend higher were to fail. Today marks the first day of that correction.

We have about 15 orders on tap to make some purchases into weakness. Most attempts to purchase are at levels about 1 to 2% lower on individual stocks and are first purchases. The desire is to scale in such that our average price becomes green quickly when the resumption of the momentum kicks in. A lot of times we take positions so that the stock is on our books and we are forced to not forget about it as so often happens with so much going on if it isn't on the books.

So, the thought is to start to scale in at key support levels on the pullback using a wide enough scale to add more at least a couple more times. If our bigger picture thought is correct, we should see a resumption of the trend come the day after Thanksgiving at the latest.

Gold is up sharply again today but the metal stocks are not reflecting that enthusiasm. You should be worried when the precious metals stocks don't anticipate or participate in the commodities rise. Gun to the head, I would short them here rather than buy. Now that the GLD tracking stock is available, you can short the gold commodity just as you use to have to do on the futures markets. We are certainly looking at it but have done nothing as yet. Would like to do so closer to that 450 round number level.

The selling continues at a heavy clip compared to recent volume. That suggests that it's not done yet and there's no need to rush to buy as of yet. Just like we expected, the turn down is hard and fast and it's likely to start to scare would be buyers if it continues. We've were very busy early trimming with the idea of adding back a bit later today or Monday. Still going through lists, updating triggers and preparing for buys but not a lot of buying yet. We started the day about where we are currently, roughly 25% long, 4+% short although our makeup has shifted to more oil stocks and less technology for now. Lots of orders in the works here and we'll start some purchases as stocks come into good support areas.

Market is starting to stablize and we've covered that SPY short. Looking for a bounce back up to short back into again.

Volume is rather heavy this morning which suggests that you shouldn't rush to buy anything just yet. It is time to dust off that list of potentials we have been watching though and to start considering where one might want to make a few purchases. Now that a real spate of selling is occuring, we can finally consider what we might want to buy.

Finally, maybe finally we are going to get a bit of a spill. We put some short positions out in the indexes again early and lightened up a bit on some longs outside the oils and metals ... read tech in particular. If the market can get a couple good solid down days here, that would set up Thanksgiving.

So another Friday and another chance for this market to bring some sanity into the equation. You've got the fretting over the dollar, the precious metals pushing higher again and oil doing the same. I see some pressure here early on the futures but whether that can actually translate into a real pullback remains to be seen. If it does, it's likely to be sharp and quickly done before reversing and that's why we keep attempting to game such a move at these levels. Shadow boxing as it were.

We are still underinvested, mostly in oils, and waiting for the opportunity to make some purchases at cheaper prices. As stated yesterday, Thanksgiving eve and after tend to be big up days and if the pullback is to occur, today and Monday seem to be prime time.

For those of you enjoying the market's nack for levitating at higher and higher levels, there wasn't any disappointment today as the high flying act continued. Our work continues to suggest that either we consolidate or pullback and so far it's been consolidate with no pullback. Time can have the same effect as a price break and if enough time passes then the next leg up could occur without a correction near term. Next week is Thanksgiving week and that typically is very positive so if a correction is about to occur it probably needs to happen in the next

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