- In Trade Chatter
- Last Updated: 23 January 2013
- By LA Little
Since the 2008 crash, fear has been a constant seller. The longer the bull market lasts, the greater the chorus of calls for its end. There's nothing like fear to sell print. The longest running shows in history are the news broadcasts and they are all about the things to fear - for the most part. It's a winning ticket day in and day out.
Although I am not suggesting to have no fear, one has to temper everything in life. Excessive behavior in anything is not good. Finding a balance is what it is all about. I am quite certain that the bull market will end - at some point but I, unlike the many who sell you fear am unable to tell you when it will occur. If I were to do so I would be telling one of those lies that are so common with many people and I don't do that.
What I do is to look at the probabilities of what is to happen. Some times those probabilities are skewed to one side or the other and offer really good opportunity and many times not. For a great trade to occur you need reward-to-risk and your favor but you also need the probability of the trade succeeding highly in your favor and that's what is hard about trading - understanding when the probabilities are in you favor.
This morning the markets are flat. The yen is bouncing hard off the "buy the news" reaction to the BOJ decision which was well known already. The dollar is weaker as as a result. The big news today and tomorrow is earnings and I'm sure that you are quite aware that their importance is tantamount with huge names reporting today and tomorrow in IBM, AAPL and GOOG. That will define this holiday shortened weak. Be prepared for whatever is to come. More than likely we will see more volatility as a result of a compressed week, many big earnings in tech which has been the weakest group and post options trading. With the trend solidly up you have to error on that side but the farther we extend without a retrace, the greater the probability that one will come. Right now those probabilities as measured through MTTF are not excessive so this can continue for a good bit longer if it so chooses.