TA Today

16April2014

trade chatter

28 bars and counting

It's been 28 bars since trend transitioned to bullish on the S&P 500. Now that seems like a long time but in terms of MTTF it's not nosebleed territory - not yet. That isn't reach until about 39 bars and that's a couple weeks to go potentially.


Cumulative MTTF is a concept I introduced in my latest book, Trend Trading Set-Ups, and provides a convenient way to interrelate time with price in the markets. It's the cumulative mean-time-to-failure rate of a trend based on all trends in the database and it is the best "overbought" measure I know because it is based on trend extensions not derivative measures of price. That makes it truly time based which is what you are after when considering oversold/overbought.

So, although the market looks tired, feels tired and acts tired, it can continue this nonsense a while longer if it chooses. There's nothing that says it can't when considering MTTF in isolation. The potential for a failure of trend now (retrace) is certainly greater than it has been and more than a coin flip at this juncture, but not nosebleed so realize that if you are convinced that shorting is the only ticket here.

Today we wake up to pressure as European markets are weighing the fact that GDP has contracted more than expected. The Euro is under pressure as a result and that has an effect on us. A down opening in a bull market usually is an invitation to do some dip buying. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again.