guest commentary

$Gold- wave 4 low in at 1597 last Friday?

We went below 1626 last Friday thus canceling my 1900 wave 5 target (see 01/06/13 article). See the following YTD daily chart.

It's possible that we may have set a marginally lower wave 4 low at 1597. We've seen $Gold do this many times before to shake out the weak hands. "A" start to the center of "B" at 1647.25 projects a 1596.5 "C" target. If 1597 holds as a wave 4 low, wave 1 start at 1524 to the center of our new presumed wave 4 at 1697.5 projects an 1871 wave 5 target. If we can get back above the "B" top at 1655, I think we may have a good shot at 1871. A move below 1597 cancels this target. $Gold still labors under the large ABC down to 1415 (see 12/15/11 and 12/30/11 articles, actual low was 1524) as we have yet to exceed its presumed 1804 "B" top. Bulls will not want to see $Gold go below its presumed wave 1 start at 1524 set 12/29/11 as this would bring the 1415 target back into play.

As for $Compq, the 3260 target is still in play as we touched 3182 last Thursday but so far have not gone below it (see 02/11/13 article).