trade chatter

Second decent down day of the year

This is the second decent down day of the year. The first was immediately reversed. Will this one be as well? I expect that that is what the buyers will attempt to. Why not? They have been rewarded by buying each and every single dip. Why would this time be any different? Well there are some slight differences. For one the MTTF is more extended now than it was then.

Here's a picture of the last time we tried to reverse. That reversal didn't work so well now did it?

But take a closer look. There are differences. As suggested before, the MTTF is more extended meaning the trend is likely to come to an end sooner rather than later. Secondly, this reversal comes not that long after the last one and actually cuts into it with increased volume. Lastly, the not only was the prior bar's advance taken away completely, it was more than taken away.

If you have been riding this bull all the way up, its time to do some soul searching. Legs higher are great as long as they last but they all come to an end at some point. A retrace at this juncture has been likely for a while. Today we got a glimpse and some evidence that the time may finally be now. Expect an attempted rally today and if it fails, the pinhole they were trying to escape through yesterday will look like a gaping hole on the next escape attempt.